Published on: 07 Jul, 2024 11:11

 

  1. longer investment horizon curtails chances of negative return, if someone has invested in NIFTY 50 for 10 more years he would not have received a negative return.
  2. For a ten-year investment period, the average return is 11.45% (CAGR).
  3. A 15-year investment period provides the best average return of 12.37% (CAGR).
  4. Since June 1994, NIFTY 50 has given a return of 10.35% (CAGR).

 NIFTY 50 from 1991

Introduction

The Nifty 50 is a benchmark stock market index in India, representing the weighted average of 50 of the largest and most liquid Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It covers 13 sectors of the Indian economy and is used to gauge the performance of the Indian equity market. Established in 1996, the Nifty 50 is one of the two main stock indices in India, the other being the BSE Sensex. It includes companies like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Infosys, reflecting the overall market trends and economic health of India.

NIFTY 50 Long-Term Return Analysis as of 28 June 2024
Date 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y
2024-06-28                  
2023-06-30 25.13                
2022-06-30 21.6                
2021-06-30 0.37 15.16              
2020-06-30 52.6 23.04              
2019-06-28 -12.61 10.21 15.29            
2018-06-29 10.03 13.63 12.36            
2017-06-30 12.53 2.66 10.63 14.13          
2016-06-30 14.88 12.46 13.66 12.74          
2015-06-30 -0.96 8.59 4.25 9.48          
2014-06-30 9.95 7.75 9.14 10.92 12.17        
2013-06-28 30.28 12.36 12.9 8.44 12.63        
2012-06-29 10.67 16.6 12.52 12.16 11.57        
2011-06-30 -6.53 10.46 7.97 9.58 10.78        
2010-06-30 6.3 3.22 9.51 8.69 6.85        
2009-06-30 23.8 7.15 12.14 9.86 10.63 12.16      
2008-06-30 6.2 11.81 7.65 10.96 10.24 10.94      
2007-06-29 -6.43 7.15 4.1 8.43 8.23 9.02      
2006-06-30 38.04 11.11 12.54 9.33 10.23 11.36      
2005-06-30 40.87 22.08 19.06 13.17 14.19 10.77      
2004-06-30 47.49 42.08 23.3 20.79 17.59 14.71 14.85    
2003-06-30 32.75 40.24 28.93 24.68 17.81 16.15 15.19    
2002-06-28 7.22 28.04 32.49 22.15 17.44 15.78 14.47    
2001-06-29 -4.52 10.77 23.07 20.3 17.69 14.36 14.18    
2000-06-30 -24.71 -8.31 8.58 16.63 13.7 12.29 10.22    
1999-06-30 23.89 -3.79 4.86 14.84 13.71 13.18 12.16 12.78  
1998-06-30 26.13 5.57 3.79 13.04 15.68 12.94 12.93 12.81  
1997-06-30 -21.03 7.26 -2.37 3.39 13.73 10.43 10.95 10.88  
1996-06-28 6.27 1.91 -0.25 0.15 10.8 11.38 10.52 11.14  
1995-06-30 16.73 -0.68 8.89 1.38 8.73 12.07 11.43 9.95  
1994-06-30 -23.06 -1.54 -1.01 -1.7 1.88 8.57 9.46 9.39 10.35
1993-06-30 87.18 18.9 7.12 11.95 5.44 12.75 11.46 11.74 11.85
1992-06-26 -22.01 3.95 6.86 4.79 2.14 11.39 9.52 10.12 10.2
1991-06-28 118.35 47.17 23.41 13.34 10.95 14.85 14.27 12.98 13.09
Max 118.35 47.17 32.49 24.68 17.81 16.15 15.19 12.98 13.09
Min -24.71 -8.31 -2.37 -1.7 1.88 8.57 9.46 9.39 10.2
Average 16.59 12.48 11.43 11.25 11.45 12.37 12.26 11.31 11.37
Median 10.67 10.46 9.51 10.96 11.26 12.16 11.81 11.14 11.1
Loss Probability 27.27% 12.90% 10.34% 3.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Key Observation About NIFTY 50 Long-Term Return Analysis (28-June-2024)

  1. 1 Year Return
    • The average 1-year return for NIFTY 50 is 16.59% and the median return is 10.57%
    • Between 1991 and 1992 NIFTY 50 gave the highest return of 118.35% during the Harshad Mehta bull period, followed by a spectacular correction of -22.01% between 1992 and 1993.
    • 1990 was a period of booms and busts in the Indian share market as 1-year return data suggest. Maybe one of the reasons for the low trust bestowed in the share market by Indian retail investors.
    • The four worst performing years were around the 1990s (2001, 1995, 1993, 1997).
  2. 5 Year Return
    • 5 year return is less volatile compared to 1 and 3 year returns.
    • The average return for 5 year holding period is 11.43% and median return is 9.51%.
    • Chance of losing money in 5 year holding period is around 10.34%.
    • The maximum return for 5 year holding period 32.49% CAGR between 2002 and 2007.
  3. 10 Year Return
    • ​​​​​​​The 10 year return data suggests the chance of losing money for 10 year holding period is almost zero. 
    • Average return for 10 year holding period is 11.45% and median return is 11.26%
    • The maximum return achieved for 10 year holding period is 17.81%, between 2003 and 2013.
    • In the last decade (2014-2024) NIFTY 50 gave return of 12.17% CAGR, which is better than average as well as median return of 10 year holding period. 






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