Published on: 16 Jan, 2023 09:37

  • This is the last full budget of the current government.
  • The government will try to provide benefits to key voter constituents, such as farmers.
  • We expect the tax slab will see minor changes
  • Farmers will get more money in PM Kisan Samman Nidhi


In less than three weeks, on 1st February 2023, Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, finance ministry of India will present her fifth budget. This will be the last full budget of the second term of the Narendra Modi government, and due to this reason, the budget has become very important. The re-election of the Narendra Modi government with a full majority depends on it. How the budget balances demands of different voters classes will increase or decrease seat count in the next general election scheduled to be conducted in 2024. We analyzed some past budgets and the governance philosophy of the current government, and come up with a list of key budget predictions:

Change in Income Tax

First the low-hanging fruit, changes in income tax:

  1. We predict the tax slab will get adjusted, and tax-free income for those earning more than rupee 5 Lakhs will increase from 2.5 lakhs to 3 lakhs.
  2. The standard deduction for salary earners will increase from rupees 50000 to 60000.
  3. 80 C limit will also increase to rupees 2 lakhs from the current 1.5 lakhs.

These changes will not affect the government budget much as they are already getting record income tax. They will do this to say we have done a lot of things for the income taxpayers, but in reality inflation-adjusted terms, it is nothing. 



This government has repeatedly said, it wants to double farmers' income. The most effective way to achieve this objective is PM Kisan Samman Nidhi as it does not suffer from regional distortion like procurement by FCI at MSP, we expect the current amount of rupees 6000 will increase. We believe one of the following things will happen in PM Kisan:

  1. The PM Kisan annual amount will increase from the current rupee 6000 to 7500 distributed in 3 installments or the amount increase to 8000 and get distributed in four installments. (Probability 100%)
  2. If the government wants to become a bit ambitious, it will increase the amount to 10000 and distribute it in four installments. (Probability 60%).
  3. Looks unimaginable but the government can double the amount to 12000 and distribute it in 12 installments. (Probability 20%) 

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